|
Resource Center » U.S. & International Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar
|
|
Factory Orders
|
Definition
Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month. Why Investors Care
|
| Released on
1/3/08
For
Nov 2007 |
|
Factory Orders - M/M change
|
| Actual |
1.5%
|
| Consensus |
0.5%
|
| Consensus Range |
0.2%
to
1.6%
|
| Previous |
0.5
%
|
|
|
|
|
|
Highlights
Factory orders jumped 1.5 percent in November but the gain reflected a 3.0 percent spike in orders for nondurable goods, a category bloated by price related gains for energy products. More telling are orders for durable goods which slipped a revised 0.1 percent which together with yesterday's dismal report from the Institute For Supply Management indicate that the nation's manufacturing sector is in trouble. Durable orders were initially released last week with a 0.1 percent gain.
Inventories offer more signs of trouble, jumping 0.8 percent overall and 0.7 percent for durable goods. A back-up in inventories going into the holiday shopping season puts the manufacturing sector at risk should sales prove disappointing. A plus in the data was strength in backlogs, up 1.0 percent overall in a result that should ease concern over a three-month run of dropping backlogs in the ISM report.
Strong exports have underpinned the manufacturing sector all year, a reflection of the soft dollar with gains centered in capital goods. Capital goods data for November were mixed with shipments and new orders mostly higher. Consumer goods data for durable goods extended a run of declines.
The manufacturing sector had been a central support for the economy. Employment has to now been another central support, and the disappointment in recent manufacturing data will magnify any disappointment in tomorrow's employment report.
|
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Factory orders rose 0.5 percent in October, following a 0.3 percent gain the prior month. But strength was in nondurables and likely was price related and does not reflect true strength for manufacturing. For the latest month, nondurables jumped 1.3 percent with gains led by petroleum & coal products, chemical products, and plastics & rubber products -- all heavily affected by the price of oil which has been rising sharply. Durables orders likely give a more accurate picture of manufacturing. New durables orders fell 0.4 percent in October, following a 1.4 percent decline in September.
Factory orders Consensus Forecast for November 07: +0.5 percent
Range: +0.2 to +1.6 percent
|
Trends
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005, new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment. |
Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Source: Market News International and Thomson Financial
|
|
|
powered by ![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif)
|
|
Legal Notices | © Copyright 2000 -2007
Econoday, Inc.
|