Econoday Report: ISM Non-Mfg Survey 4, 2008

2008 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis

Resource Center » U.S. & International Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar

ISM Non-Mfg Survey

Definition
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys nearly 400 firms from 60 sectors across the United States, including agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade. Beginning with the January 2008 report, a new composite index was made public and is now the headline number. It is considered an indicator of the overall economic conditions for the non-manufacturing sector and consists of four equally weighted indexes: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. Why Investors Care

Released on 1/4/08 For Dec 2007

Composite Index - Level
Actual	53.9
Consensus	53.8
Consensus Range	52.0 to 55.0
Previous	54.1

Highlights
The jobs report may be pointing to a hard slowdown but not the ISM non-manufacturing report which offers a reminder that economic growth is still alive. The ISM non-manufacturing index slipped a tiny 2 tenths in December to 53.9. Even the employment index showed strength, up 1.3 points to 52.1.

New orders rebounded from a dip in the prior month to show a respectable 53.5 level. Backlog orders held steady, rising slightly to 49.0. One negative was a 5.5 point drop in export orders to a 50.0 level that indicates no change in the month. One positive here is that the dollar is heading still lower and only about one fifth of the ISM's non-manufacturing sample is exporters. Inventories were unchanged at a very steady 50.5. Prices pressures remain well elevated at 72.7 though they are back from November's 76.5.

This report will take a bit, but only a bit, out of this morning's sting from the BLS. Treasuries firmed as did the dollar in reaction to the report.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The business activity index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey in November slipped 1.7 points to a moderate 54.1. The big negative in the report was a sharp fall in new orders, which declined 4.6 points to 51.1, which is barely above break even. Another big negative in the report was a jump in prices paid, up 13 points to 76.5 and reflecting the effect of high gas prices. The ISM non-manufacturing index is one more indicator pointing to a combination of sluggish growth and higher inflation.

Business activity index Consensus Forecast for December 07: 53.8
Range: 52.0 to 55.0

Trends

Beginning with the January 2008 report, a new composite index was made public and is now the headline number. It is considered an indicator of the overall economic conditions for the non-manufacturing sector and consists of four equally weighted indexes: business activity, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries.

Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Source: Market News International and Thomson Financial

2008 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/4 2/5 3/5 4/3 5/5 6/4 7/3 8/5 9/4 10/3 11/5 12/3

Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov