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Resource Center » U.S. & International Recaps | Release Dates | Why Investors Care | Today's Calendar
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Treasury Budget
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Definition
The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care
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| Released on
7/11/08
For
Jun 2008 |
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Treasury Budget - Level
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| Actual |
$50.7B
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| Consensus |
$23.7B
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| Consensus Range |
$22.4B
to
$55.0B
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| Previous |
$
-165.9
B
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Highlights
Quarterly tax payments make June a surplus month for the nation's Treasury with this June's surplus at $50.7 billion, at the top end of expectations but boosted by calendar quirks on government payments. The fiscal year-to-date tally tells the more meaningful story, at a deficit of $268.7 billion for a 122 percent increase from this time last year. Year-to-date, individual tax receipts are down 0.8 percent with corporate tax receipts down 15.4 percent. On the outlay side, defense spending is up 10.1 percent so far this fiscal year with social security and net interest payments showing mid single digit increases.
Ahead, there's substantial risk that the nation's fiscal deficit will widen further as job contraction cuts back individual tax receipts which are the chief source of the government's income. Widening outlays are also a risk, reflecting not only current fiscal stimulus, which is winding down, but possible future stimulus should the federal government institute a second stimulus package, talk of which is surfacing in Washington.
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Market Consensus Before Announcement
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a huge jump in May in the federal deficit due primarily to the disbursement of income tax rebate checks. Tax stimulus checks added $48 billion to May's $165.9 billion Treasury deficit, an unwanted record which dwarfed last May's $67.7 billion deficit. Adding another $20 billion to the deficit was a calendar quirk tied to June 1 falling on a weekend. On a fiscal year-to-date basis, the deficit is up 115 percent. Looking ahead, the month of June typically shows a moderate surplus for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average surplus for the month of June has been $33.3 billion.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for June 08: +$23.7 billion
Range: +$22.4 billion to +$55.0 billion.
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Trends
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
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The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government. |
Data Source: Haver Analytics | Consensus Data Source: Market News International and Thomson Financial
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